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China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited (0081.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.87 - $101.16$94.80
Multi-Stage$16.38 - $17.93$17.14
Blended Fair Value$55.97
Current Price$1.62
Upside3,354.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.56%9.65%0.130.180.170.280.230.150.050.020.000.01
YoY Growth---29.99%10.08%-41.18%23.00%57.51%201.75%203.37%0.00%-100.00%-89.53%
Dividend Yield--7.76%8.10%5.59%8.80%6.60%3.05%2.15%0.45%0.00%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,820.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,108.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)712.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)364.10227.56136.54
Cash Retained (M)712.41712.41712.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-364.10-227.56-136.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)348.31484.84575.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,559.383,559.383,559.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Fair Value$33.87$94.80$101.16
Upside / Downside1,990.51%5,751.62%6,144.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,820.521,928.092,042.012,162.672,290.462,425.802,498.57
Payout Ratio60.87%66.69%72.52%78.35%84.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,108.111,285.921,480.881,694.391,927.962,183.222,311.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Year 1 PV (M)1,199.681,211.121,222.56
Year 2 PV (M)1,288.921,313.611,338.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,375.851,415.571,456.05
Year 4 PV (M)1,460.521,517.011,575.12
Year 5 PV (M)1,542.971,617.931,695.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,424.8853,922.9856,517.24
Equity Value (M)58,292.8260,998.2163,805.26
Shares Outstanding (M)3,559.383,559.383,559.38
Fair Value$16.38$17.14$17.93
Upside / Downside910.94%957.86%1,006.54%

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