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Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.68 - $116.62$66.93
Multi-Stage$29.44 - $32.19$30.79
Blended Fair Value$48.86
Current Price$10.10
Upside383.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-8.91%0.390.000.310.000.000.000.000.010.611.01
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-54.48%-99.00%-40.22%2.01%
Dividend Yield--4.49%0.00%4.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.13%30.64%10.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.905.563.34
Cash Retained (M)38.9438.9438.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.90-5.56-3.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.0433.3835.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.0224.0224.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.251.391.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.251.391.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.481.621.71
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.68$66.93$116.62
Upside / Downside332.52%562.65%1,054.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.5047.4050.4853.7657.2560.9762.80
Payout Ratio12.50%28.00%43.50%59.00%74.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.5613.2721.9631.7242.6554.8858.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12.0512.1712.28
Year 2 PV (M)18.1118.4518.80
Year 3 PV (M)23.7624.4425.13
Year 4 PV (M)29.0130.1331.27
Year 5 PV (M)33.9035.5337.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)590.20618.71648.31
Equity Value (M)707.03739.43773.03
Shares Outstanding (M)24.0224.0224.02
Fair Value$29.44$30.79$32.19
Upside / Downside191.47%204.83%218.68%

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