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Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.98 - $100.96$59.17
Multi-Stage$27.23 - $29.75$28.47
Blended Fair Value$43.82
Current Price$19.57
Upside123.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.60%0.00%0.400.410.310.310.340.370.370.310.210.16
YoY Growth---0.81%33.70%0.00%-10.51%-8.78%1.53%18.84%45.03%30.63%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.56%1.42%1.20%1.52%1.88%3.07%2.88%2.02%1.66%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)511.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)384.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.2063.8838.33
Cash Retained (M)384.00384.00384.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.20-63.88-38.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)281.80320.13345.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)301.28301.28301.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.941.061.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.941.061.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.481.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Fair Value$38.98$59.17$100.96
Upside / Downside99.19%202.33%415.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)511.00543.76578.62615.71655.19697.19718.10
Payout Ratio24.85%37.88%50.91%63.94%76.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.00205.99294.59393.69504.30627.47664.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Year 1 PV (M)187.07188.84190.62
Year 2 PV (M)242.95247.58252.26
Year 3 PV (M)294.86303.34311.97
Year 4 PV (M)343.01356.21369.79
Year 5 PV (M)387.58406.32425.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,748.347,074.567,413.29
Equity Value (M)8,203.818,576.868,963.70
Shares Outstanding (M)301.28301.28301.28
Fair Value$27.23$28.47$29.75
Upside / Downside39.14%45.47%52.03%

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