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HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.16 - $37.57$29.63
Multi-Stage$30.95 - $33.76$32.33
Blended Fair Value$30.98
Current Price$52.34
Upside-40.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.38%-5.04%2.041.801.360.311.221.191.241.251.241.31
YoY Growth--13.28%33.14%343.83%-74.87%1.92%-3.59%-0.83%0.64%-5.23%-61.85%
Dividend Yield--6.22%2.98%2.80%0.77%3.40%4.86%2.52%2.58%4.37%3.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)393.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)379.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.7049.1929.51
Cash Retained (M)14.0314.0314.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.70-49.19-29.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-64.67-35.16-15.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.84188.84188.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.19-0.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.19-0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.821.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Fair Value$23.16$29.63$37.57
Upside / Downside-55.74%-43.39%-28.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)393.49404.34415.49426.95438.72450.81464.34
Payout Ratio96.43%95.15%93.86%92.57%91.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)379.46384.72389.98395.24400.49405.73429.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Year 1 PV (M)349.26352.70356.13
Year 2 PV (M)321.41327.76334.17
Year 3 PV (M)295.72304.53313.50
Year 4 PV (M)272.03282.89294.06
Year 5 PV (M)250.19262.73275.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,356.224,574.524,801.49
Equity Value (M)5,844.856,105.126,375.11
Shares Outstanding (M)188.84188.84188.84
Fair Value$30.95$32.33$33.76
Upside / Downside-40.86%-38.23%-35.50%

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