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Asia Network International Public Company Limited (ANI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.02 - $4.66$3.78
Multi-Stage$7.07 - $7.76$7.41
Blended Fair Value$5.60
Current Price$3.44
Upside62.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.450.140.060.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---44.85%232.07%118.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.33%9.44%2.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)604.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)570.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.0075.6245.37
Cash Retained (M)34.7034.7034.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.00-75.62-45.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)-86.29-40.92-10.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,847.951,847.951,847.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.02$3.78$4.66
Upside / Downside-12.18%9.98%35.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)604.98598.93592.94587.01581.14575.33592.59
Payout Ratio94.26%93.41%92.56%91.71%90.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)570.28559.47548.82538.32527.98517.80548.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)520.03525.34530.65
Year 2 PV (M)474.18483.90493.73
Year 3 PV (M)432.33445.70459.34
Year 4 PV (M)394.14410.47427.31
Year 5 PV (M)359.29378.00397.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,879.6211,446.1512,036.03
Equity Value (M)13,059.5913,689.5714,344.54
Shares Outstanding (M)1,847.951,847.951,847.95
Fair Value$7.07$7.41$7.76
Upside / Downside105.44%115.35%125.65%

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