Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ALII.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.47 - $200.28$169.19
Multi-Stage$221.78 - $243.67$232.51
Blended Fair Value$200.85
Current Price$620.00
Upside-67.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)315,713.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71,216.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)244,497.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63,142.6839,464.1723,678.50
Cash Retained (M)244,497.28244,497.28244,497.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-63,142.68-39,464.17-23,678.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)181,354.61205,033.11220,818.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,825.8015,825.8015,825.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.4612.9613.95
LTM Dividend per Share4.504.504.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.4612.9613.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.9617.4618.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$139.47$169.19$200.28
Upside / Downside-77.50%-72.71%-67.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)315,713.38312,556.25309,430.69306,336.38303,273.02300,240.29309,247.50
Payout Ratio22.56%36.05%49.53%63.02%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71,216.10112,663.28153,274.39193,062.01232,038.55270,216.26286,053.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)102,116.49103,158.50104,200.50
Year 2 PV (M)125,920.55128,503.47131,112.61
Year 3 PV (M)143,759.77148,205.64152,742.24
Year 4 PV (M)156,608.10163,098.77169,789.14
Year 5 PV (M)165,302.36173,910.04182,872.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,816,183.422,962,828.623,115,520.11
Equity Value (M)3,509,890.703,679,705.043,856,237.22
Shares Outstanding (M)15,825.8015,825.8015,825.80
Fair Value$221.78$232.51$243.67
Upside / Downside-64.23%-62.50%-60.70%

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