Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

KEDE Numerical Control Co., Ltd. (688305.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.94 - $58.52$34.66
Multi-Stage$88.92 - $98.28$93.50
Blended Fair Value$64.08
Current Price$65.68
Upside-2.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.230.000.000.010.010.000.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--29,669.86%-77.31%-54.83%40.40%0.00%-100.00%253.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.38%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.3115.209.12
Cash Retained (M)106.34106.34106.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.31-15.20-9.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.0391.1497.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)111.65111.65111.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.820.87
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.820.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.01
WACC / Discount Rate1.72%1.72%1.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$22.94$34.66$58.52
Upside / Downside-65.07%-47.22%-10.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121.56120.35119.14117.95116.77115.61119.07
Payout Ratio12.52%28.02%43.51%59.01%74.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.2233.7251.8469.6087.00104.05110.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.72%1.72%1.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)32.8133.1533.48
Year 2 PV (M)49.1050.1051.12
Year 3 PV (M)64.1566.1368.15
Year 4 PV (M)78.0381.2684.60
Year 5 PV (M)90.8195.54100.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,613.0710,113.6510,634.86
Equity Value (M)9,927.9710,439.8310,972.68
Shares Outstanding (M)111.65111.65111.65
Fair Value$88.92$93.50$98.28
Upside / Downside35.38%42.36%49.63%

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