Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. (600276.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$197.30 - $232.46$217.85
Multi-Stage$43.81 - $48.01$45.87
Blended Fair Value$131.86
Current Price$71.55
Upside84.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.47%26.40%0.200.160.160.170.160.130.060.050.030.02
YoY Growth--24.63%0.72%-4.76%4.83%25.43%120.20%16.20%61.95%30.02%22.94%
Dividend Yield--0.41%0.35%0.37%0.45%0.21%0.20%0.13%0.15%0.18%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,468.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,274.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,193.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,493.62933.52560.11
Cash Retained (M)6,193.996,193.996,193.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,493.62-933.52-560.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,700.375,260.485,633.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,389.226,389.226,389.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.820.88
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.820.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate5.73%5.73%5.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$197.30$217.85$232.46
Upside / Downside175.76%204.47%224.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,468.127,953.558,470.539,021.119,607.4910,231.9710,538.93
Payout Ratio17.06%31.65%46.24%60.82%75.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,274.132,517.203,916.485,487.047,245.229,208.789,748.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.73%5.73%5.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,358.332,380.682,403.04
Year 2 PV (M)3,437.723,503.193,569.29
Year 3 PV (M)4,512.314,641.844,773.83
Year 4 PV (M)5,582.125,796.796,017.60
Year 5 PV (M)6,647.176,968.237,301.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)257,352.38269,782.60282,688.55
Equity Value (M)279,890.02293,073.34306,753.88
Shares Outstanding (M)6,389.226,389.226,389.22
Fair Value$43.81$45.87$48.01
Upside / Downside-38.77%-35.89%-32.90%

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