Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Medicine Co., Ltd. (600216.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.54 - $255.55$157.13
Multi-Stage$46.52 - $51.08$48.76
Blended Fair Value$102.95
Current Price$14.17
Upside626.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.27%1.95%0.180.200.370.271.060.180.100.170.070.08
YoY Growth---11.26%-45.34%35.00%-74.15%498.96%71.32%-38.53%141.14%-16.40%-43.65%
Dividend Yield--1.33%2.16%2.98%1.75%7.53%0.94%0.93%1.10%0.59%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,244.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,227.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)248.80155.5093.30
Cash Retained (M)1,227.781,227.781,227.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-248.80-155.50-93.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)978.981,072.281,134.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)953.56953.56953.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.121.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.121.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.21
WACC / Discount Rate5.65%5.65%5.65%
Growth Rate3.88%4.88%5.88%
Fair Value$61.54$157.13$255.55
Upside / Downside334.26%1,008.93%1,703.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,244.011,304.771,368.511,435.361,505.471,579.011,626.38
Payout Ratio1.30%19.04%36.78%54.52%72.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.23248.48503.37782.581,087.861,421.111,504.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.65%5.65%5.65%
Growth Rate3.88%4.88%5.88%
Year 1 PV (M)232.95235.20237.44
Year 2 PV (M)442.44451.00459.64
Year 3 PV (M)644.88663.69682.85
Year 4 PV (M)840.45873.28907.06
Year 5 PV (M)1,029.311,079.811,132.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,170.2143,190.2745,288.84
Equity Value (M)44,360.2546,493.2448,708.11
Shares Outstanding (M)953.56953.56953.56
Fair Value$46.52$48.76$51.08
Upside / Downside228.30%244.09%260.48%

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