Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangzhou Jinzhong Auto Parts Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (301133.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.91 - $83.54$78.29
Multi-Stage$55.54 - $60.96$58.20
Blended Fair Value$68.24
Current Price$29.69
Upside129.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS17.30%0.00%0.210.150.110.000.140.090.000.240.000.00
YoY Growth--37.17%36.79%2,500.28%-96.96%49.91%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.63%0.44%0.02%0.24%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.075.673.40
Cash Retained (M)32.2132.2132.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.07-5.67-3.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.1526.5528.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)107.91107.91107.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate-0.58%-0.58%-0.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.91$78.29$83.54
Upside / Downside138.83%163.69%181.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.3348.2851.4154.7658.3162.1063.97
Payout Ratio28.93%41.15%53.36%65.57%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.1219.8627.4335.9045.3655.8959.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.58%-0.58%-0.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)19.7919.9820.17
Year 2 PV (M)27.2427.7628.28
Year 3 PV (M)35.5236.5437.58
Year 4 PV (M)44.7146.4348.20
Year 5 PV (M)54.8957.5560.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,811.146,091.826,383.24
Equity Value (M)5,993.296,280.076,577.76
Shares Outstanding (M)107.91107.91107.91
Fair Value$55.54$58.20$60.96
Upside / Downside87.07%96.02%105.31%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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