Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co., Ltd. (300953.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$539.66 - $635.82$595.85
Multi-Stage$223.31 - $244.96$233.93
Blended Fair Value$414.89
Current Price$188.19
Upside120.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS63.74%40.48%0.960.720.570.270.110.080.070.070.060.08
YoY Growth--32.98%27.46%112.86%134.17%39.33%13.18%8.05%16.20%-26.14%142.35%
Dividend Yield--0.84%1.76%1.08%0.33%0.23%0.12%0.11%0.00%0.00%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)493.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)363.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.7061.6837.01
Cash Retained (M)363.24363.24363.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.70-61.68-37.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)264.54301.55326.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)154.35154.35154.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.711.952.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.711.952.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.562.802.96
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$539.66$595.85$635.82
Upside / Downside186.77%216.62%237.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)493.48525.56559.72596.10634.84676.11696.39
Payout Ratio26.39%39.11%51.84%64.56%77.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.24205.57290.13384.82490.60608.50644.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)194.86196.71198.56
Year 2 PV (M)260.71265.67270.69
Year 3 PV (M)327.79337.20346.79
Year 4 PV (M)396.13411.36427.03
Year 5 PV (M)465.75488.24511.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,823.7934,409.1936,055.27
Equity Value (M)34,469.0336,108.3837,809.93
Shares Outstanding (M)154.35154.35154.35
Fair Value$223.31$233.93$244.96
Upside / Downside18.66%24.31%30.16%

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