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The Cross-Harbour (Holdings) Limited (0032.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$217.44 - $560.78$525.53
Multi-Stage$79.96 - $87.53$83.67
Blended Fair Value$304.60
Current Price$8.10
Upside3,660.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.53%4.76%0.480.360.420.420.420.400.390.350.350.33
YoY Growth--32.78%-14.50%0.04%0.38%4.34%3.91%11.56%-0.14%4.12%11.04%
Dividend Yield--7.12%4.67%3.87%3.82%2.99%3.31%3.32%2.73%3.10%3.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,050.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)312.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)737.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)210.18131.3678.82
Cash Retained (M)737.93737.93737.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-210.18-131.36-78.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)527.76606.57659.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)372.69372.69372.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.631.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.631.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.262.472.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$217.44$525.53$560.78
Upside / Downside2,584.46%6,388.02%6,823.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,050.881,119.191,191.941,269.411,351.931,439.801,483.00
Payout Ratio29.78%41.82%53.87%65.91%77.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)312.95468.09642.07836.701,053.911,295.821,371.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)435.01439.13443.25
Year 2 PV (M)554.52565.09575.75
Year 3 PV (M)671.54690.82710.46
Year 4 PV (M)786.09816.33847.42
Year 5 PV (M)898.23941.61986.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,453.6427,731.3629,057.98
Equity Value (M)29,799.0331,184.3332,621.52
Shares Outstanding (M)372.69372.69372.69
Fair Value$79.96$83.67$87.53
Upside / Downside887.12%933.01%980.62%

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