Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Qinghai Huzhu TianYouDe Highland Barley Spirit Co., Ltd. (002646.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.09 - $0.13$0.11
Multi-Stage$0.14 - $0.16$0.15
Blended Fair Value$0.13
Current Price$9.63
Upside-98.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.67%-5.20%0.170.060.060.010.040.120.070.160.180.28
YoY Growth--161.99%9.80%630.82%-78.91%-68.86%81.90%-59.68%-6.63%-37.24%-1.25%
Dividend Yield--1.84%0.56%0.37%0.05%0.29%1.31%0.49%1.28%0.88%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.300.810.49
Cash Retained (M)4.544.544.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.30-0.81-0.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.233.724.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)474.39474.39474.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-1.98%-0.98%0.02%
Fair Value$0.09$0.11$0.13
Upside / Downside-99.05%-98.85%-98.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.506.446.376.316.256.196.37
Payout Ratio30.24%42.19%54.14%66.10%78.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.972.723.454.174.885.575.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-1.98%-0.98%0.02%
Year 1 PV (M)2.452.472.50
Year 2 PV (M)2.812.872.92
Year 3 PV (M)3.063.163.25
Year 4 PV (M)3.233.363.50
Year 5 PV (M)3.333.503.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)52.1954.9157.74
Equity Value (M)67.0670.2673.59
Shares Outstanding (M)474.39474.39474.39
Fair Value$0.14$0.15$0.16
Upside / Downside-98.53%-98.46%-98.39%

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