Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Emei Shan Tourism Co.,Ltd (000888.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.92 - $6.04$4.91
Multi-Stage$8.06 - $8.88$8.46
Blended Fair Value$6.69
Current Price$13.11
Upside-49.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.62%19.36%0.230.040.060.080.100.100.100.080.100.09
YoY Growth--482.63%-32.82%-24.03%-21.02%0.00%0.00%25.00%-20.00%11.11%125.00%
Dividend Yield--1.69%0.39%0.66%1.01%1.53%1.63%1.29%0.82%0.73%0.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)224.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)212.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.9928.1216.87
Cash Retained (M)212.36212.36212.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.99-28.12-16.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)167.37184.24195.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)526.91526.91526.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-1.80%-0.80%0.20%
Fair Value$3.92$4.91$6.04
Upside / Downside-70.07%-62.54%-53.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)224.93223.12221.33219.55217.79216.03222.52
Payout Ratio5.59%22.47%39.35%56.24%73.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.5850.1487.10123.47159.24194.43205.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-1.80%-0.80%0.20%
Year 1 PV (M)46.5046.9747.45
Year 2 PV (M)74.9176.4578.00
Year 3 PV (M)98.48101.52104.62
Year 4 PV (M)117.79122.67127.69
Year 5 PV (M)133.38140.31147.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,773.983,970.104,174.29
Equity Value (M)4,245.054,458.024,679.57
Shares Outstanding (M)526.91526.91526.91
Fair Value$8.06$8.46$8.88
Upside / Downside-38.55%-35.46%-32.26%

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