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Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co., Ltd. (000690.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.20 - $18.09$11.80
Multi-Stage$11.45 - $12.56$12.00
Blended Fair Value$11.90
Current Price$4.62
Upside157.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.04%1.10%0.410.140.170.440.380.330.240.190.310.35
YoY Growth--182.18%-13.01%-62.58%15.99%14.41%35.74%31.43%-40.39%-9.55%-4.88%
Dividend Yield--9.83%2.82%2.73%9.11%5.47%6.37%2.94%2.27%3.47%4.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)934.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)483.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)450.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)186.86116.7970.07
Cash Retained (M)450.82450.82450.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-186.86-116.79-70.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)263.96334.04380.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,165.722,165.722,165.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Fair Value$8.20$11.80$18.09
Upside / Downside77.48%155.52%291.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)934.29962.67991.911,022.051,053.101,085.091,117.64
Payout Ratio51.75%59.40%67.05%74.70%82.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)483.47571.80665.06763.46867.22976.581,033.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Year 1 PV (M)532.53537.75542.97
Year 2 PV (M)576.84588.21599.68
Year 3 PV (M)616.71635.02653.69
Year 4 PV (M)652.41678.36705.08
Year 5 PV (M)684.22718.41753.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,734.7322,820.8523,949.95
Equity Value (M)24,797.4525,978.6027,205.33
Shares Outstanding (M)2,165.722,165.722,165.72
Fair Value$11.45$12.00$12.56
Upside / Downside147.84%159.64%171.90%

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