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Home Bancorp, Inc. (HBCP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$130.84 - $347.08$200.06
Multi-Stage$89.06 - $97.33$93.12
Blended Fair Value$146.59
Current Price$54.33
Upside169.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.73%32.29%1.031.030.980.990.990.990.840.510.380.27
YoY Growth---0.40%5.72%-1.14%-0.46%0.06%17.78%64.77%36.21%38.20%333.44%
Dividend Yield--2.30%2.79%2.96%2.43%2.76%4.07%2.42%1.19%1.11%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.865.543.32
Cash Retained (M)35.6635.6635.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.86-5.54-3.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.8030.1232.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.957.957.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.373.794.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.373.794.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.464.885.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$130.84$200.06$347.08
Upside / Downside140.82%268.24%538.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.3247.2150.2753.5457.0260.7362.55
Payout Ratio19.54%33.63%47.72%61.82%75.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.6615.8823.9933.1043.2854.6557.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14.4214.5514.69
Year 2 PV (M)19.7820.1620.54
Year 3 PV (M)24.7825.4926.21
Year 4 PV (M)29.4230.5531.72
Year 5 PV (M)33.7335.3637.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)585.61613.90643.26
Equity Value (M)707.74740.01773.47
Shares Outstanding (M)7.957.957.95
Fair Value$89.06$93.12$97.33
Upside / Downside63.93%71.40%79.15%

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