Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd. (688015.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.40 - $16.21$12.34
Multi-Stage$9.25 - $10.11$9.67
Blended Fair Value$11.00
Current Price$25.32
Upside-56.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.98%0.00%0.200.360.460.380.200.140.060.060.090.00
YoY Growth---45.77%-20.95%21.83%84.06%45.74%125.00%1.58%-30.18%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.93%2.15%1.97%1.45%0.53%0.29%0.16%0.16%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.6117.2610.35
Cash Retained (M)92.6492.6492.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.61-17.26-10.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.0375.3882.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)192.68192.68192.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Fair Value$9.40$12.34$16.21
Upside / Downside-62.86%-51.28%-35.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.05144.49151.23158.29165.67173.40178.60
Payout Ratio32.90%44.32%55.74%67.16%78.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.4164.0384.29106.30130.18156.06165.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Year 1 PV (M)57.6658.2258.78
Year 2 PV (M)68.3669.6871.02
Year 3 PV (M)77.6379.9082.21
Year 4 PV (M)85.6288.9792.42
Year 5 PV (M)92.4296.97101.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,400.901,469.781,541.35
Equity Value (M)1,782.591,863.521,947.47
Shares Outstanding (M)192.68192.68192.68
Fair Value$9.25$9.67$10.11
Upside / Downside-63.46%-61.80%-60.08%

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