Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.,Ltd. (600988.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.09 - $62.25$41.43
Multi-Stage$21.07 - $23.02$22.03
Blended Fair Value$31.73
Current Price$29.58
Upside7.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.60%28.30%0.150.080.070.010.040.040.050.030.020.02
YoY Growth--82.27%11.40%1,032.55%-82.70%-8.13%-8.97%67.40%13.36%18.81%61.12%
Dividend Yield--0.66%0.48%0.41%0.04%0.26%0.49%1.01%0.43%0.33%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,717.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)387.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,329.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)543.43339.64203.79
Cash Retained (M)2,329.672,329.672,329.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-543.43-339.64-203.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,786.241,990.032,125.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.581,771.581,771.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.231.341.42
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.09$41.43$62.25
Upside / Downside-1.66%40.06%110.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,717.162,893.773,081.873,282.193,495.533,722.743,834.42
Payout Ratio14.26%29.41%44.56%59.70%74.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)387.48851.011,373.171,959.612,616.483,350.473,546.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)766.73774.00781.27
Year 2 PV (M)1,114.651,135.881,157.32
Year 3 PV (M)1,433.151,474.291,516.22
Year 4 PV (M)1,724.051,790.351,858.55
Year 5 PV (M)1,989.052,085.122,184.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,297.3231,760.7033,280.07
Equity Value (M)37,324.9639,020.3540,778.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.581,771.581,771.58
Fair Value$21.07$22.03$23.02
Upside / Downside-28.77%-25.54%-22.18%

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