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Verallia S.A. (VRLA.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.03 - $57.53$46.51
Multi-Stage$89.62 - $98.45$93.95
Blended Fair Value$70.23
Current Price$28.20
Upside149.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%2.141.391.040.970.110.000.000.000.740.00
YoY Growth--53.79%33.50%7.44%771.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.81%3.99%3.29%3.13%0.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.62%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)462.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)452.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.5057.8134.69
Cash Retained (M)10.2010.2010.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.50-57.81-34.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)-82.30-47.61-24.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.80117.80117.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.70-0.40-0.21
LTM Dividend per Share3.843.843.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.70-0.40-0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.143.443.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$37.03$46.51$57.53
Upside / Downside31.31%64.93%104.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)462.50457.88453.30448.76444.28439.83453.03
Payout Ratio97.79%96.24%94.68%93.12%91.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)452.30440.64429.17417.88406.77395.85419.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)410.29414.48418.66
Year 2 PV (M)372.08379.71387.42
Year 3 PV (M)337.34347.77358.42
Year 4 PV (M)305.76318.43331.49
Year 5 PV (M)277.05291.48306.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,853.979,315.029,795.07
Equity Value (M)10,556.4911,066.8911,597.57
Shares Outstanding (M)117.80117.80117.80
Fair Value$89.62$93.95$98.45
Upside / Downside217.79%233.15%249.12%

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