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PT Total Bangun Persada Tbk (TOTL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,011.28 - $4,252.58$2,852.40
Multi-Stage$2,896.36 - $3,175.76$3,033.42
Blended Fair Value$2,942.91
Current Price$845.00
Upside248.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%1.34%40.00100.0025.0010.0010.0040.0050.0045.0040.0030.00
YoY Growth---60.00%300.00%150.00%0.00%-75.00%-20.00%11.11%12.50%33.33%-14.29%
Dividend Yield--7.02%20.83%7.86%3.42%2.98%12.90%8.13%6.38%4.94%4.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)380,340.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)255,750.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)124,590.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76,068.1347,542.5828,525.55
Cash Retained (M)124,590.63124,590.63124,590.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-76,068.13-47,542.58-28,525.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)48,522.5077,048.0596,065.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,410.003,410.003,410.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.2322.5928.17
LTM Dividend per Share75.0075.0075.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.2322.5928.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend89.2397.59103.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate1.90%2.90%3.90%
Fair Value$2,011.28$2,852.40$4,252.58
Upside / Downside138.02%237.56%403.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)380,340.63391,365.30402,709.53414,382.59426,394.01438,753.59451,916.20
Payout Ratio67.24%71.79%76.35%80.90%85.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)255,750.00280,976.35307,450.26335,222.84364,347.16394,878.23418,022.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate1.90%2.90%3.90%
Year 1 PV (M)261,461.71264,027.61266,593.51
Year 2 PV (M)266,226.64271,477.60276,779.84
Year 3 PV (M)270,114.92278,145.68286,334.06
Year 4 PV (M)273,192.44284,075.43295,280.38
Year 5 PV (M)275,521.07289,308.40303,642.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,530,079.358,956,932.669,400,705.58
Equity Value (M)9,876,596.1310,343,967.3710,829,335.60
Shares Outstanding (M)3,410.003,410.003,410.00
Fair Value$2,896.36$3,033.42$3,175.76
Upside / Downside242.76%258.98%275.83%

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