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Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.09 - $75.93$57.03
Multi-Stage$47.07 - $51.43$49.21
Blended Fair Value$53.12
Current Price$39.61
Upside34.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.69%4.34%0.940.610.180.000.440.861.720.840.841.03
YoY Growth--54.78%242.98%0.00%-100.00%-49.70%-49.58%103.34%0.96%-18.94%67.62%
Dividend Yield--2.37%2.02%1.10%0.00%2.99%4.55%7.23%2.81%3.71%4.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.741.090.65
Cash Retained (M)4.014.014.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.74-1.09-0.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.262.923.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.821.061.21
LTM Dividend per Share1.701.701.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.821.061.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.762.92
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Fair Value$43.09$57.03$75.93
Upside / Downside8.78%43.97%91.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.719.079.449.8210.2210.6310.95
Payout Ratio54.01%61.21%68.41%75.60%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.715.556.457.428.469.5710.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)5.045.095.14
Year 2 PV (M)5.325.425.53
Year 3 PV (M)5.555.725.88
Year 4 PV (M)5.755.976.21
Year 5 PV (M)5.906.196.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)102.42107.48112.75
Equity Value (M)129.97135.87142.00
Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
Fair Value$47.07$49.21$51.43
Upside / Downside18.84%24.24%29.83%

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