Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AirTrip Corp. (6191.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,146.14 - $2,072.59$1,532.65
Multi-Stage$2,012.42 - $2,214.18$2,111.35
Blended Fair Value$1,822.00
Current Price$980.00
Upside85.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.51%0.00%9.939.939.849.809.048.777.845.260.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.90%0.45%8.37%3.05%11.93%49.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.87%0.53%0.40%0.29%0.70%0.39%0.29%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,840.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)368.00230.00138.00
Cash Retained (M)1,617.001,617.001,617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-368.00-230.00-138.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,249.001,387.001,479.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.4522.4522.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.6361.7765.87
LTM Dividend per Share9.939.939.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.6361.7765.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend65.5671.7175.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate0.51%1.51%2.51%
Fair Value$1,146.14$1,532.65$2,072.59
Upside / Downside16.95%56.39%111.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,840.001,867.791,896.001,924.641,953.711,983.212,042.71
Payout Ratio12.12%27.70%43.27%58.85%74.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.00517.30820.431,132.611,454.021,784.891,889.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate0.51%1.51%2.51%
Year 1 PV (M)482.03486.82491.62
Year 2 PV (M)712.37726.62741.01
Year 3 PV (M)916.38944.01972.18
Year 4 PV (M)1,096.231,140.511,186.12
Year 5 PV (M)1,253.931,317.561,383.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,723.4642,790.0144,939.62
Equity Value (M)45,184.4047,405.5349,714.29
Shares Outstanding (M)22.4522.4522.45
Fair Value$2,012.42$2,111.35$2,214.18
Upside / Downside105.35%115.44%125.94%

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