Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CMST Development Co.,Ltd. (600787.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.69 - $11.47$6.99
Multi-Stage$3.28 - $3.58$3.43
Blended Fair Value$5.21
Current Price$5.92
Upside-12.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.73%7.60%0.160.150.220.140.100.170.160.120.130.10
YoY Growth--5.96%-30.37%61.23%39.80%-42.04%3.81%34.75%-10.58%31.77%30.88%
Dividend Yield--2.81%3.11%4.13%2.53%1.89%3.68%2.28%1.32%1.53%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)462.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)99.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)362.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.5457.8434.70
Cash Retained (M)362.81362.81362.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.54-57.84-34.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)270.27304.97328.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,158.562,158.562,158.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.69$6.99$11.47
Upside / Downside-20.78%18.08%93.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)462.70492.77524.80558.92595.25633.94652.95
Payout Ratio21.59%35.27%48.95%62.64%76.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)99.89173.81256.91350.08454.28570.54603.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)157.44158.93160.43
Year 2 PV (M)210.81214.82218.88
Year 3 PV (M)260.21267.68275.29
Year 4 PV (M)305.87317.63329.73
Year 5 PV (M)347.98364.79382.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,794.336,074.206,364.78
Equity Value (M)7,076.657,398.067,731.35
Shares Outstanding (M)2,158.562,158.562,158.56
Fair Value$3.28$3.43$3.58
Upside / Downside-44.62%-42.11%-39.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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