Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chongqing road & bridge co.,ltd (600106.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.67 - $0.88$0.78
Multi-Stage$2.28 - $2.53$2.40
Blended Fair Value$1.59
Current Price$6.31
Upside-74.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.75%4.50%0.100.050.060.050.060.060.070.070.050.06
YoY Growth--109.80%-20.69%11.54%-14.63%10.00%-13.29%-4.59%30.67%-8.54%-9.89%
Dividend Yield--1.86%0.75%1.23%1.14%2.30%2.30%1.99%2.28%0.96%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)229.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)89.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.9628.7317.24
Cash Retained (M)140.67140.67140.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.96-28.73-17.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)94.71111.95123.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,286.011,286.011,286.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-12.42%-11.42%-10.42%
Fair Value$0.67$0.78$0.88
Upside / Downside-89.42%-87.63%-85.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)229.81203.57180.33159.74141.50125.35129.11
Payout Ratio38.79%49.03%59.27%69.51%79.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)89.1499.81106.88111.04112.86112.81119.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-12.42%-11.42%-10.42%
Year 1 PV (M)92.8193.8794.93
Year 2 PV (M)92.4194.5496.68
Year 3 PV (M)89.2792.3795.53
Year 4 PV (M)84.3788.2992.34
Year 5 PV (M)78.4283.0087.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,492.162,637.722,790.00
Equity Value (M)2,929.443,089.773,257.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,286.011,286.011,286.01
Fair Value$2.28$2.40$2.53
Upside / Downside-63.90%-61.92%-59.86%

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