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CITIC Limited (0267.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.60 - $596.90$210.79
Multi-Stage$104.37 - $114.42$109.30
Blended Fair Value$160.04
Current Price$10.78
Upside1,384.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.60%-3.90%0.520.650.640.540.390.440.400.340.300.27
YoY Growth---19.76%2.45%18.70%39.74%-12.49%9.99%17.65%13.34%10.61%-65.30%
Dividend Yield--6.07%8.39%7.75%6.99%7.01%4.22%3.26%2.99%2.70%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107,374.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35,599.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)71,774.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21,474.9013,421.818,053.09
Cash Retained (M)71,774.8971,774.8971,774.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-21,474.90-13,421.81-8,053.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)50,299.9958,353.0863,721.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29,090.1329,090.1329,090.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.732.012.19
LTM Dividend per Share1.221.221.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.732.012.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.233.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Fair Value$117.60$210.79$596.90
Upside / Downside990.90%1,855.34%5,437.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107,374.50112,461.87117,790.29123,371.17129,216.46135,338.71139,398.87
Payout Ratio33.15%44.52%55.89%67.26%78.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35,599.6150,072.1865,836.2682,981.73101,604.10121,804.84128,943.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)46,636.0847,085.6347,535.19
Year 2 PV (M)57,110.5258,216.8859,333.86
Year 3 PV (M)67,043.8569,001.4470,996.78
Year 4 PV (M)76,456.2979,447.2582,525.11
Year 5 PV (M)85,367.4089,562.0693,920.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,703,447.672,836,285.872,974,295.27
Equity Value (M)3,036,061.813,179,599.143,328,606.22
Shares Outstanding (M)29,090.1329,090.1329,090.13
Fair Value$104.37$109.30$114.42
Upside / Downside868.16%913.93%961.45%

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