Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Lianfa Textile Co.,Ltd (002394.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.09 - $8.58$7.32
Multi-Stage$54.14 - $60.28$57.14
Blended Fair Value$32.23
Current Price$11.14
Upside189.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-27.49%-12.72%0.140.890.080.360.560.680.830.710.800.80
YoY Growth---84.87%1,024.65%-78.19%-35.20%-16.66%-18.72%16.66%-11.05%0.54%50.96%
Dividend Yield--1.81%11.79%1.06%4.59%5.55%7.81%7.04%6.12%4.72%5.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)334.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)273.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.9141.8225.09
Cash Retained (M)273.84273.84273.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.91-41.82-25.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)206.93232.02248.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)323.87323.87323.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.720.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.720.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.900.96
WACC / Discount Rate3.25%3.25%3.25%
Growth Rate-9.09%-8.09%-7.09%
Fair Value$6.09$7.32$8.58
Upside / Downside-45.36%-34.26%-22.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)334.57307.50282.63259.76238.75219.43226.02
Payout Ratio18.15%32.52%46.89%61.26%75.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.73100.00132.53159.13180.57197.49209.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.25%3.25%3.25%
Growth Rate-9.09%-8.09%-7.09%
Year 1 PV (M)95.8096.8597.91
Year 2 PV (M)121.62124.31127.03
Year 3 PV (M)139.89144.56149.33
Year 4 PV (M)152.06158.86165.89
Year 5 PV (M)159.32168.28177.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,865.8117,814.0618,804.48
Equity Value (M)17,534.5018,506.9119,522.26
Shares Outstanding (M)323.87323.87323.87
Fair Value$54.14$57.14$60.28
Upside / Downside386.00%412.95%441.09%

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