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The York Water Company (YORW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.25 - $45.74$32.11
Multi-Stage$21.97 - $23.97$22.95
Blended Fair Value$27.53
Current Price$30.42
Upside-9.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.11%5.03%0.840.810.740.680.650.620.600.570.550.53
YoY Growth--4.30%8.58%8.83%4.41%4.54%4.70%4.30%3.43%3.57%3.78%
Dividend Yield--2.42%2.25%1.66%1.52%1.33%1.44%1.76%1.84%1.58%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.012.501.50
Cash Retained (M)7.547.547.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.01-2.50-1.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.535.036.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.3914.3914.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.111.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Fair Value$23.25$32.11$45.74
Upside / Downside-23.58%5.55%50.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20.0321.0622.1323.2624.4525.7026.47
Payout Ratio62.37%67.90%73.42%78.95%84.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.5014.3016.2518.3720.6623.1324.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Year 1 PV (M)12.9813.1013.23
Year 2 PV (M)13.3913.6513.91
Year 3 PV (M)13.7414.1414.55
Year 4 PV (M)14.0314.5815.14
Year 5 PV (M)14.2714.9715.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)247.70259.82272.42
Equity Value (M)316.12330.27344.95
Shares Outstanding (M)14.3914.3914.39
Fair Value$21.97$22.95$23.97
Upside / Downside-27.78%-24.55%-21.19%

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