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Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.86 - $89.81$51.77
Multi-Stage$23.78 - $25.95$24.85
Blended Fair Value$38.31
Current Price$14.41
Upside165.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.22%27.50%0.670.670.580.370.340.280.220.160.110.07
YoY Growth---0.03%15.42%56.37%11.21%20.07%26.73%38.32%38.97%61.24%19.99%
Dividend Yield--5.17%5.12%4.62%2.19%2.01%2.41%1.56%1.15%0.80%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.876.794.08
Cash Retained (M)28.8928.8928.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.87-6.79-4.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.0322.1024.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.6537.6537.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.86$51.77$89.81
Upside / Downside134.94%259.26%523.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.3457.8761.6365.6469.9174.4576.68
Payout Ratio46.83%55.46%64.10%72.73%81.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.4532.1039.5147.7456.8867.0170.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.1429.4229.70
Year 2 PV (M)32.5733.1933.82
Year 3 PV (M)35.7436.7737.81
Year 4 PV (M)38.6640.1541.68
Year 5 PV (M)41.3643.3545.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)717.94752.62788.62
Equity Value (M)895.42935.50977.06
Shares Outstanding (M)37.6537.6537.65
Fair Value$23.78$24.85$25.95
Upside / Downside65.04%72.43%80.09%

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