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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.53 - $184.43$106.31
Multi-Stage$50.84 - $55.36$53.06
Blended Fair Value$79.69
Current Price$45.10
Upside76.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.66%7.33%2.392.332.272.162.001.311.281.261.251.22
YoY Growth--2.51%2.37%5.41%7.88%52.11%2.53%1.40%1.18%2.83%3.29%
Dividend Yield--3.91%4.39%3.28%2.95%3.17%2.36%2.72%2.00%2.30%1.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,039.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,001.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,038.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,207.80754.88452.93
Cash Retained (M)1,038.001,038.001,038.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,207.80-754.88-452.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)-169.80283.13585.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,037.492,037.492,037.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.140.29
LTM Dividend per Share2.452.452.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.140.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.372.592.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$69.53$106.31$184.43
Upside / Downside54.16%135.73%308.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,039.006,431.546,849.587,294.817,768.978,273.958,522.17
Payout Ratio82.81%84.25%85.69%87.12%88.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,001.005,418.535,869.216,355.586,880.387,446.567,883.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,920.034,966.665,013.30
Year 2 PV (M)4,838.954,931.125,024.16
Year 3 PV (M)4,757.884,894.465,033.63
Year 4 PV (M)4,676.894,856.755,041.74
Year 5 PV (M)4,596.064,818.055,048.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,787.5183,641.2887,642.54
Equity Value (M)103,577.32108,108.32112,803.91
Shares Outstanding (M)2,037.492,037.492,037.49
Fair Value$50.84$53.06$55.36
Upside / Downside12.72%17.65%22.76%

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