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Li Ming Development Construction Co., Ltd. (6212.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$116.31 - $226.68$160.09
Multi-Stage$192.84 - $211.79$202.14
Blended Fair Value$181.11
Current Price$43.30
Upside318.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS3.13%0.00%3.480.000.002.990.002.990.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)746.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)357.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)389.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)149.2293.2655.96
Cash Retained (M)389.12389.12389.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-149.22-93.26-55.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)239.89295.85333.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.50102.50102.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.342.893.25
LTM Dividend per Share3.483.483.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.342.893.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.826.376.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Fair Value$116.31$160.09$226.68
Upside / Downside168.62%269.73%423.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)746.12762.02778.26794.84811.78829.08853.95
Payout Ratio47.85%56.28%64.71%73.14%81.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)357.00428.85503.60581.34662.16746.17789.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Year 1 PV (M)399.88403.83407.79
Year 2 PV (M)437.86446.56455.35
Year 3 PV (M)471.31485.43499.83
Year 4 PV (M)500.57520.67541.36
Year 5 PV (M)525.98552.50580.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,431.1518,310.1819,224.31
Equity Value (M)19,766.7520,719.1721,708.72
Shares Outstanding (M)102.50102.50102.50
Fair Value$192.84$202.14$211.79
Upside / Downside345.37%366.83%389.12%

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