Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (601958.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.85 - $37.97$25.37
Multi-Stage$12.95 - $14.15$13.54
Blended Fair Value$19.46
Current Price$15.45
Upside25.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.87%17.00%0.270.300.100.250.300.140.060.020.020.06
YoY Growth---11.07%200.00%-60.00%-16.67%105.95%155.25%162.49%20.61%-67.69%0.55%
Dividend Yield--2.51%2.59%0.85%3.75%4.98%2.40%0.79%0.32%0.23%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,074.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)429.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,644.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)614.81384.26230.56
Cash Retained (M)2,644.252,644.252,644.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-614.81-384.26-230.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,029.432,259.992,413.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,241.913,241.913,241.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.85$25.37$37.97
Upside / Downside15.55%64.21%145.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,074.073,273.883,486.683,713.323,954.684,211.744,338.09
Payout Ratio13.98%29.19%44.39%59.59%74.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)429.82955.511,547.722,212.872,957.963,790.574,012.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)860.62868.78876.94
Year 2 PV (M)1,255.581,279.501,303.64
Year 3 PV (M)1,616.921,663.341,710.63
Year 4 PV (M)1,946.722,021.582,098.59
Year 5 PV (M)2,246.942,355.472,468.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,063.5435,708.8237,417.07
Equity Value (M)41,990.3243,897.4845,875.01
Shares Outstanding (M)3,241.913,241.913,241.91
Fair Value$12.95$13.54$14.15
Upside / Downside-16.17%-12.36%-8.41%

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