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Huaneng Power International, Inc. (600011.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.07 - $138.41$50.04
Multi-Stage$25.59 - $28.04$26.79
Blended Fair Value$38.41
Current Price$7.06
Upside444.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.57%-0.39%0.870.710.790.920.840.810.770.891.010.87
YoY Growth--22.80%-10.42%-13.82%9.95%3.70%5.50%-13.56%-12.63%16.94%-4.55%
Dividend Yield--12.63%7.74%9.27%13.34%19.01%17.24%11.49%12.91%14.13%10.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,563.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,358.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,205.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,912.701,820.441,092.26
Cash Retained (M)6,205.376,205.376,205.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,912.70-1,820.44-1,092.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,292.684,384.945,113.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16,377.9616,377.9616,377.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Fair Value$28.07$50.04$138.41
Upside / Downside297.59%608.73%1,860.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,563.4815,248.6115,965.9716,717.0817,503.5218,326.9618,876.77
Payout Ratio57.39%63.91%70.43%76.96%83.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,358.119,745.8011,245.5612,864.8514,611.6216,494.2717,461.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Year 1 PV (M)9,077.869,165.399,252.93
Year 2 PV (M)9,756.929,946.0010,136.89
Year 3 PV (M)10,396.8710,700.5411,010.08
Year 4 PV (M)10,999.2311,429.6511,872.59
Year 5 PV (M)11,565.4512,133.9312,724.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)367,383.03385,440.93404,202.03
Equity Value (M)419,179.36438,816.45459,199.06
Shares Outstanding (M)16,377.9616,377.9616,377.96
Fair Value$25.59$26.79$28.04
Upside / Downside262.52%279.51%297.13%

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