DDM Analysis: WCN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$406.11 - $478.47	$448.39
Multi-Stage	$156.06 - $171.09	$163.43
Blended Fair Value	$305.91
Current Price	$175.80
Upside	74.01%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.54%	17.77%	1.17	1.05	0.94	0.85	0.77	0.68	0.59	0.51	0.36	0.26
YoY Growth	-	-	11.70%	11.35%	10.36%	10.17%	14.18%	14.76%	15.59%	42.60%	40.24%	12.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.60%	0.61%	0.68%	0.61%	0.72%	0.87%	0.67%	0.71%	0.61%	0.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	622.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	324.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)	297.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	124.41	77.76	46.65
Cash Retained (M)	297.10	297.10	297.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-124.41	-77.76	-46.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)	172.69	219.34	250.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	258.56	258.56	258.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.67	0.85	0.97
LTM Dividend per Share	1.26	1.26	1.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.67	0.85	0.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.92	2.11	2.23
WACC / Discount Rate	4.63%	4.63%	4.63%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$406.11	$448.39	$478.47
Upside / Downside	131.01%	155.06%	172.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	622.05	662.49	705.55	751.41	800.25	852.27	877.83
Payout Ratio	52.24%	59.79%	67.34%	74.90%	82.45%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	324.96	396.11	475.14	562.77	659.79	767.04	812.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.63%	4.63%	4.63%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	375.03	378.59	382.14
Year 2 PV (M)	425.93	434.04	442.23
Year 3 PV (M)	477.64	491.35	505.32
Year 4 PV (M)	530.19	550.58	571.55
Year 5 PV (M)	583.58	611.77	641.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	37,957.20	39,790.54	41,694.06
Equity Value (M)	40,349.57	42,256.87	44,236.34
Shares Outstanding (M)	258.56	258.56	258.56
Fair Value	$156.06	$163.43	$171.09
Upside / Downside	-11.23%	-7.03%	-2.68%

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Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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