DDM Analysis: TFII

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$77.34 - $173.97	$112.08
Multi-Stage	$57.28 - $62.46	$59.82
Blended Fair Value	$85.95
Current Price	$88.06
Upside	-2.39%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	16.56%	10.64%	1.59	1.47	1.11	1.28	0.85	0.74	0.65	0.65	0.57	0.59
YoY Growth	-	-	8.61%	31.94%	-13.44%	51.70%	14.37%	14.40%	-0.88%	15.15%	-3.52%	1.39%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.06%	0.92%	0.93%	1.21%	1.13%	2.38%	1.60%	1.95%	1.80%	2.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	323.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	146.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)	176.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	64.69	40.43	24.26
Cash Retained (M)	176.70	176.70	176.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-64.69	-40.43	-24.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)	112.01	136.27	152.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	84.04	84.04	84.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.33	1.62	1.81
LTM Dividend per Share	1.75	1.75	1.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.33	1.62	1.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.08	3.37	3.56
WACC / Discount Rate	9.70%	9.70%	9.70%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$77.34	$112.08	$173.97
Upside / Downside	-12.17%	27.28%	97.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	323.46	344.48	366.88	390.72	416.12	443.17	456.46
Payout Ratio	45.37%	54.30%	63.22%	72.15%	81.07%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	146.76	187.05	231.95	281.90	337.37	398.85	422.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.70%	9.70%	9.70%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	168.91	170.51	172.11
Year 2 PV (M)	189.14	192.75	196.38
Year 3 PV (M)	207.58	213.54	219.61
Year 4 PV (M)	224.33	232.96	241.83
Year 5 PV (M)	239.49	251.06	263.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,784.10	3,966.88	4,156.64
Equity Value (M)	4,813.56	5,027.69	5,249.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	84.04	84.04	84.04
Fair Value	$57.28	$59.82	$62.46
Upside / Downside	-34.96%	-32.07%	-29.07%

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TFI International Inc. (TFII)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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