DDM Analysis: TCPI.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$188.28 - $255.67	$222.64
Multi-Stage	$315.04 - $347.09	$330.75
Blended Fair Value	$276.69
Current Price	$5,825.00
Upside	-95.25%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.39%	0.00%	10.00	7.00	3.00	0.00	5.00	15.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	42.86%	133.33%	0.00%	-100.00%	-67.74%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.17%	0.09%	0.04%	0.00%	0.06%	0.32%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	190,548.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	25,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	165,548.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	38,109.60	23,818.50	14,291.10
Cash Retained (M)	165,548.00	165,548.00	165,548.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-38,109.60	-23,818.50	-14,291.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	127,438.40	141,729.50	151,256.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,000.00	5,000.00	5,000.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	25.49	28.35	30.25
LTM Dividend per Share	5.00	5.00	5.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	25.49	28.35	30.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	30.49	33.35	35.25
WACC / Discount Rate	9.94%	9.94%	9.94%
Growth Rate	-5.38%	-4.38%	-3.38%
Fair Value	$188.28	$222.64	$255.67
Upside / Downside	-96.77%	-96.18%	-95.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	190,548.00	182,195.13	174,208.43	166,571.82	159,269.98	152,288.22	156,856.86
Payout Ratio	13.12%	28.50%	43.87%	59.25%	74.62%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	25,000.00	51,918.40	76,428.78	98,690.51	118,853.64	137,059.39	145,092.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.94%	9.94%	9.94%
Growth Rate	-5.38%	-4.38%	-3.38%
Year 1 PV (M)	46,731.44	47,225.35	47,719.25
Year 2 PV (M)	61,920.23	63,236.02	64,565.64
Year 3 PV (M)	71,967.91	74,274.00	76,628.83
Year 4 PV (M)	78,012.44	81,363.15	84,820.65
Year 5 PV (M)	80,974.45	85,344.96	89,902.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,235,595.27	1,302,285.12	1,371,823.99
Equity Value (M)	1,575,201.75	1,653,728.60	1,735,460.54
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,000.00	5,000.00	5,000.00
Fair Value	$315.04	$330.75	$347.09
Upside / Downside	-94.59%	-94.32%	-94.04%

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PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk (TCPI.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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