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Definitive Analysis

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Stadio Holdings Limited (SDO.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.33 - $27.52$17.82
Multi-Stage$9.28 - $10.11$9.69
Blended Fair Value$13.75
Current Price$8.75
Upside57.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.100.090.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.89%89.31%3,997,400.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.43%1.72%0.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)531.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)297.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)233.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.3066.4439.86
Cash Retained (M)233.56233.56233.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.30-66.44-39.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)127.26167.12193.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)859.27859.27859.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.33$17.82$27.52
Upside / Downside40.88%103.62%214.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)531.50566.04602.84642.02683.75728.20750.04
Payout Ratio56.06%62.85%69.63%76.42%83.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)297.94355.73419.78490.65568.96655.38693.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)321.13324.17327.22
Year 2 PV (M)342.09348.60355.18
Year 3 PV (M)360.95371.31381.87
Year 4 PV (M)377.84392.37407.32
Year 5 PV (M)392.90411.87431.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,175.426,473.706,783.39
Equity Value (M)7,970.328,322.038,686.55
Shares Outstanding (M)859.27859.27859.27
Fair Value$9.28$9.69$10.11
Upside / Downside6.01%10.69%15.53%

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