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Definitive Analysis

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Sabvest Capital Limited (SBP.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$247.54 - $392.72$313.70
Multi-Stage$274.26 - $300.49$287.13
Blended Fair Value$300.41
Current Price$99.01
Upside203.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.22%-5.43%0.950.920.870.360.520.781.960.680.610.55
YoY Growth--3.92%5.62%139.63%-30.61%-32.64%-60.38%187.17%11.02%12.49%-67.23%
Dividend Yield--1.04%1.27%1.04%0.59%1.76%2.22%5.59%1.95%1.75%1.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)910.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)838.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)182.12113.8368.30
Cash Retained (M)838.60838.60838.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-182.12-113.83-68.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)656.48724.78770.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.6438.6438.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.9918.7619.93
LTM Dividend per Share1.861.861.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.9918.7619.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.8520.6221.80
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate2.22%3.22%4.22%
Fair Value$247.54$313.70$392.72
Upside / Downside150.02%216.83%296.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)910.61939.89970.111,001.311,033.501,066.741,098.74
Payout Ratio7.91%24.33%40.74%57.16%73.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.01228.64395.27572.38760.47960.061,016.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate2.22%3.22%4.22%
Year 1 PV (M)205.84207.85209.87
Year 2 PV (M)320.37326.67333.03
Year 3 PV (M)417.66430.03442.66
Year 4 PV (M)499.57519.41539.83
Year 5 PV (M)567.80596.12625.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,586.849,015.189,460.44
Equity Value (M)10,598.0811,095.2611,611.39
Shares Outstanding (M)38.6438.6438.64
Fair Value$274.26$287.13$300.49
Upside / Downside177.00%190.00%203.49%

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