DDM Analysis: SAP.DE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$131.81 - $324.61	$196.88
Multi-Stage	$102.45 - $111.93	$107.11
Blended Fair Value	$151.99
Current Price	$258.15
Upside	-41.12%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.46%	7.95%	2.18	2.04	2.44	1.86	1.59	1.52	1.42	1.27	1.17	1.12
YoY Growth	-	-	7.10%	-16.40%	31.30%	17.06%	4.13%	7.12%	11.47%	8.78%	4.71%	10.22%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.89%	1.15%	2.10%	1.84%	1.52%	1.48%	1.38%	1.50%	1.27%	1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,082.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,743.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,339.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,416.40	885.25	531.15
Cash Retained (M)	4,339.00	4,339.00	4,339.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,416.40	-885.25	-531.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,922.60	3,453.75	3,807.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,175.73	1,175.73	1,175.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.49	2.94	3.24
LTM Dividend per Share	2.33	2.33	2.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.49	2.94	3.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.82	5.27	5.57
WACC / Discount Rate	8.72%	8.72%	8.72%
Growth Rate	4.89%	5.89%	6.89%
Fair Value	$131.81	$196.88	$324.61
Upside / Downside	-48.94%	-23.73%	25.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,082.00	7,498.83	7,940.19	8,407.52	8,902.37	9,426.33	9,709.12
Payout Ratio	38.73%	48.99%	59.24%	69.49%	79.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,743.00	3,673.34	4,703.70	5,842.62	7,099.32	8,483.70	8,980.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.72%	8.72%	8.72%
Growth Rate	4.89%	5.89%	6.89%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,346.80	3,378.71	3,410.62
Year 2 PV (M)	3,904.60	3,979.41	4,054.92
Year 3 PV (M)	4,418.88	4,546.48	4,676.51
Year 4 PV (M)	4,892.03	5,081.28	5,275.97
Year 5 PV (M)	5,326.31	5,585.10	5,853.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)	98,568.98	103,358.31	108,332.03
Equity Value (M)	120,457.59	125,929.30	131,603.92
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,175.73	1,175.73	1,175.73
Fair Value	$102.45	$107.11	$111.93
Upside / Downside	-60.31%	-58.51%	-56.64%

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SAP SE (SAP.DE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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