DDM Analysis: OVRS.TA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.39 - $5.25	$4.25
Multi-Stage	$7.24 - $7.97	$7.60
Blended Fair Value	$5.92
Current Price	$4.44
Upside	33.43%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-18.38%	-6.17%	0.05	0.10	0.29	0.11	0.14	0.13	0.20	0.20	0.18	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-51.47%	-65.62%	152.03%	-19.48%	6.99%	-33.03%	-0.91%	10.00%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.12%	2.58%	6.29%	2.63%	3.31%	5.09%	4.10%	3.20%	2.45%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	19.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.99	2.49	1.49
Cash Retained (M)	11.50	11.50	11.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.99	-2.49	-1.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)	7.52	9.01	10.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	55.38	55.38	55.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.18
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.29	0.31	0.33
WACC / Discount Rate	6.64%	6.64%	6.64%
Growth Rate	-1.72%	-0.72%	0.28%
Fair Value	$3.39	$4.25	$5.25
Upside / Downside	-23.76%	-4.31%	18.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	19.93	19.79	19.64	19.50	19.36	19.22	19.80
Payout Ratio	42.28%	51.82%	61.37%	70.91%	80.46%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8.43	10.25	12.05	13.83	15.58	17.30	18.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.64%	6.64%	6.64%
Growth Rate	-1.72%	-0.72%	0.28%
Year 1 PV (M)	9.52	9.61	9.71
Year 2 PV (M)	10.39	10.60	10.81
Year 3 PV (M)	11.06	11.40	11.75
Year 4 PV (M)	11.57	12.05	12.54
Year 5 PV (M)	11.93	12.54	13.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	346.69	364.69	383.43
Equity Value (M)	401.15	420.89	441.43
Shares Outstanding (M)	55.38	55.38	55.38
Fair Value	$7.24	$7.60	$7.97
Upside / Downside	63.15%	71.18%	79.53%

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Overseas Commerce Ltd. (OVRS.TA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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