DDM Analysis: OSK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$149.20 - $270.71	$199.77
Multi-Stage	$140.40 - $153.57	$146.87
Blended Fair Value	$173.32
Current Price	$128.82
Upside	34.54%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.71%	9.00%	1.85	1.65	1.50	1.39	1.26	1.16	1.10	0.97	0.86	0.82
YoY Growth	-	-	11.94%	10.17%	7.63%	10.51%	8.34%	6.04%	13.38%	12.34%	5.27%	4.73%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.96%	1.34%	1.80%	1.38%	1.06%	1.23%	1.79%	1.06%	1.33%	2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	666.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	128.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)	538.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	133.26	83.29	49.97
Cash Retained (M)	538.10	538.10	538.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-133.26	-83.29	-49.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)	404.84	454.81	488.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	65.01	65.01	65.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share	6.23	7.00	7.51
LTM Dividend per Share	1.97	1.97	1.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share	6.23	7.00	7.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend	8.20	8.97	9.48
WACC / Discount Rate	9.55%	9.55%	9.55%
Growth Rate	3.85%	4.85%	5.85%
Fair Value	$149.20	$199.77	$270.71
Upside / Downside	15.82%	55.07%	110.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	666.30	698.58	732.43	767.92	805.13	844.13	869.46
Payout Ratio	19.24%	33.39%	47.54%	61.70%	75.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	128.20	233.27	348.23	473.78	610.67	759.72	804.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.55%	9.55%	9.55%
Growth Rate	3.85%	4.85%	5.85%
Year 1 PV (M)	210.90	212.94	214.97
Year 2 PV (M)	284.64	290.15	295.71
Year 3 PV (M)	350.13	360.34	370.75
Year 4 PV (M)	408.02	423.97	440.37
Year 5 PV (M)	458.93	481.46	504.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,415.23	7,779.21	8,157.34
Equity Value (M)	9,127.86	9,548.06	9,984.00
Shares Outstanding (M)	65.01	65.01	65.01
Fair Value	$140.40	$146.87	$153.57
Upside / Downside	8.99%	14.01%	19.21%

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Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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