DDM Analysis: OISHI.BK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.62 - $32.52	$27.45
Multi-Stage	$57.02 - $62.86	$59.88
Blended Fair Value	$43.67
Current Price	$58.75
Upside	-25.67%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2015	2014	2013	2012
DPS	-4.36%	-4.59%	1.00	1.24	1.97	1.51	1.61	1.25	0.80	0.78	0.45	1.15
YoY Growth	-	-	-19.35%	-36.73%	30.67%	-6.25%	28.00%	56.25%	3.23%	72.22%	-60.87%	-28.13%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.16%	2.86%	4.92%	2.98%	4.37%	1.90%	2.04%	2.02%	1.06%	1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,234.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	600.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	634.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	246.85	154.28	92.57
Cash Retained (M)	634.23	634.23	634.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-246.85	-154.28	-92.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	387.38	479.95	541.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	373.62	373.62	373.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.04	1.28	1.45
LTM Dividend per Share	1.61	1.61	1.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.04	1.28	1.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.64	2.89	3.06
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	-4.43%	-3.43%	-2.43%
Fair Value	$22.62	$27.45	$32.52
Upside / Downside	-61.50%	-53.27%	-44.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,234.23	1,191.92	1,151.07	1,111.62	1,073.51	1,036.72	1,067.82
Payout Ratio	48.61%	56.89%	65.17%	73.45%	81.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	600.00	678.09	750.13	816.43	877.30	933.05	987.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	-4.43%	-3.43%	-2.43%
Year 1 PV (M)	628.70	635.28	641.85
Year 2 PV (M)	644.82	658.39	672.09
Year 3 PV (M)	650.69	671.33	692.40
Year 4 PV (M)	648.27	675.83	704.26
Year 5 PV (M)	639.24	673.39	708.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	18,093.12	19,059.70	20,067.15
Equity Value (M)	21,304.84	22,373.91	23,486.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	373.62	373.62	373.62
Fair Value	$57.02	$59.88	$62.86
Upside / Downside	-2.94%	1.93%	7.00%

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Oishi Group Public Company Limited (OISHI.BK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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