DDM Analysis: NCK.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$83.43 - $329.02	$228.83
Multi-Stage	$41.69 - $45.52	$43.57
Blended Fair Value	$136.20
Current Price	$18.21
Upside	647.93%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	8.09%	16.84%	0.64	0.68	0.73	0.58	0.61	0.44	0.47	0.35	0.30	0.16
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.14%	-6.67%	25.00%	-4.00%	38.89%	-8.16%	36.11%	16.13%	82.35%	21.43%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.53%	5.06%	7.98%	7.04%	5.17%	6.73%	7.75%	5.18%	4.93%	3.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	138.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	110.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)	27.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27.66	17.29	10.37
Cash Retained (M)	27.80	27.80	27.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27.66	-17.29	-10.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)	0.15	10.52	17.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	83.59	83.59	83.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.13	0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	1.32	1.32	1.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.13	0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.32	1.45	1.53
WACC / Discount Rate	7.17%	7.17%	7.17%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$83.43	$228.83	$329.02
Upside / Downside	358.13%	1,156.61%	1,706.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	138.29	147.28	156.85	167.04	177.90	189.47	195.15
Payout Ratio	79.89%	81.92%	83.94%	85.96%	87.98%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	110.49	120.64	131.65	143.59	156.52	170.52	180.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.17%	7.17%	7.17%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	111.51	112.57	113.62
Year 2 PV (M)	112.48	114.62	116.78
Year 3 PV (M)	113.39	116.64	119.96
Year 4 PV (M)	114.24	118.63	123.15
Year 5 PV (M)	115.04	120.60	126.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,917.82	3,058.76	3,205.08
Equity Value (M)	3,484.48	3,641.82	3,804.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	83.59	83.59	83.59
Fair Value	$41.69	$43.57	$45.52
Upside / Downside	128.92%	139.26%	149.98%

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Nick Scali Limited (NCK.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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