DDM Analysis: MSFT

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$288.40 - $661.40	$420.71
Multi-Stage	$206.39 - $225.41	$215.72
Blended Fair Value	$318.22
Current Price	$517.95
Upside	-38.56%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	9.73%	9.32%	3.23	2.92	2.65	2.43	2.21	2.03	1.85	1.70	1.59	1.47
YoY Growth	-	-	10.62%	9.95%	9.18%	9.77%	9.14%	9.60%	8.76%	7.21%	7.62%	11.37%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.62%	0.68%	0.84%	1.04%	0.79%	0.96%	1.33%	1.47%	2.13%	2.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	104,912.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24,677.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	80,235.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	20,982.40	13,114.00	7,868.40
Cash Retained (M)	80,235.00	80,235.00	80,235.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-20,982.40	-13,114.00	-7,868.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)	59,252.60	67,121.00	72,366.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	7,465.00	7,465.00	7,465.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	7.94	8.99	9.69
LTM Dividend per Share	3.31	3.31	3.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share	7.94	8.99	9.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend	11.24	12.30	13.00
WACC / Discount Rate	9.61%	9.61%	9.61%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$288.40	$420.71	$661.40
Upside / Downside	-44.32%	-18.77%	27.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	104,912.00	111,731.28	118,993.81	126,728.41	134,965.76	143,738.53	148,050.69
Payout Ratio	23.52%	36.82%	50.11%	63.41%	76.70%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24,677.00	41,136.43	59,631.33	80,356.77	103,524.57	129,364.68	136,946.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.61%	9.61%	9.61%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	37,176.44	37,528.83	37,881.21
Year 2 PV (M)	48,703.13	49,630.79	50,567.20
Year 3 PV (M)	59,312.47	61,015.12	62,750.04
Year 4 PV (M)	69,057.07	71,712.81	74,444.42
Year 5 PV (M)	77,986.89	81,753.69	85,664.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,248,435.11	1,308,734.99	1,371,342.69
Equity Value (M)	1,540,671.11	1,610,376.22	1,682,650.21
Shares Outstanding (M)	7,465.00	7,465.00	7,465.00
Fair Value	$206.39	$215.72	$225.41
Upside / Downside	-60.15%	-58.35%	-56.48%

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EXPD	Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.	0.99%	$1.50	24.32%
LISOX	Lazard International Strategic Equity Ptf Open Shares	0.99%	$0.13	36.87%
MXC	Mexco Energy Corporation	0.99%	$0.10	12.25%
NIC	Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.	0.99%	$1.19	12.58%
PAYC	Paycom Software, Inc.	0.99%	$1.51	18.80%
RRC	Range Resources Corporation	0.99%	$0.35	14.60%
WLFC	Willis Lease Finance Corporation	0.99%	$1.32	7.58%
WOR	Worthington Industries, Inc.	0.99%	$0.52	23.95%
CNXN	PC Connection, Inc.	0.98%	$0.56	16.89%
CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	0.97%	$5.78	29.40%
CNK	Cinemark Holdings, Inc.	0.97%	$0.23	18.28%
ECL	Ecolab Inc.	0.97%	$2.54	36.57%
EVR	Evercore Inc.	0.97%	$3.41	27.02%
LSBK	Lake Shore Bancorp, Inc.	0.96%	$0.14	24.34%
0ITL.L	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	0.95%	$2.42	39.43%
0IZI.L	W.W. Grainger, Inc.	0.95%	$9.52	26.47%
0L5V.L	The Sherwin-Williams Company	0.95%	$3.11	30.09%
0R2S.L	Stryker Corporation	0.95%	$3.28	43.09%
RRX	Regal Rexnord Corporation	0.95%	$1.39	36.07%
WT	WisdomTree, Inc.	0.95%	$0.12	18.12%
J	Jacobs Solutions Inc.	0.94%	$1.27	53.80%
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	0.94%	$1.84	34.81%
TCBS	Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.	0.94%	$0.17	19.22%
IMKTA	Ingles Markets, Incorporated	0.93%	$0.65	14.68%
ODC	Oil-Dri Corporation of America	0.93%	$0.45	12.28%
PENG	Penguin Solutions, Inc.	0.93%	$0.19	40.17%
SSBK	Southern States Bancshares, Inc.	0.93%	$0.34	9.19%
DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
HIFS	Hingham Institution for Savings	0.92%	$2.49	12.15%
RL	Ralph Lauren Corporation	0.92%	$3.34	24.37%
OPY	Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.	0.91%	$0.66	8.90%
BGC	BGC Group, Inc	0.90%	$0.08	23.56%
CDRE	Cadre Holdings, Inc.	0.90%	$0.37	33.35%
MBNKP	Medallion Bank	0.90%	$0.23	12.50%
JBHT	J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.	0.89%	$1.75	30.14%
NYT	The New York Times Company	0.89%	$0.62	30.32%
RMD	ResMed Inc.	0.89%	$2.18	22.31%
VBFC	Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp.	0.89%	$0.72	15.35%
0I14.L	Cognex Corporation	0.88%	$0.32	49.16%
AR	Antero Resources Corporation	0.88%	$0.30	17.15%
LDOS	Leidos Holdings, Inc.	0.88%	$1.61	14.88%
LMAT	LeMaitre Vascular, Inc.	0.88%	$0.70	32.20%
NNI	Nelnet, Inc.	0.88%	$1.14	9.52%
PFSI	PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.	0.88%	$1.16	12.49%
SMBK	SmartFinancial, Inc.	0.88%	$0.32	11.76%
BYD	Boyd Gaming Corporation	0.87%	$0.75	3.22%
ROST	Ross Stores, Inc.	0.87%	$1.59	24.85%
BBSI	Barrett Business Services, Inc.	0.86%	$0.31	15.02%
BCO	The Brink's Company	0.86%	$1.00	24.81%
HXL	Hexcel Corporation	0.86%	$0.66	77.18%

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Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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