Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Public Joint-Stock Company Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS (MOEX.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Data & Stock ExchangesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$519.35 - $1,103.96$737.87
Multi-Stage$370.55 - $405.18$387.55
Blended Fair Value$562.71
Current Price$106.99
Upside425.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.12%21.85%16.884.490.009.427.897.665.4310.167.053.81
YoY Growth--275.79%0.00%-100.00%19.38%3.01%41.04%-46.57%44.17%84.84%62.96%
Dividend Yield--15.78%4.20%0.00%9.47%4.53%7.88%5.89%8.69%6.32%3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62,645.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)932.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)61,713.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12,529.127,830.704,698.42
Cash Retained (M)61,713.3361,713.3361,713.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-12,529.12-7,830.70-4,698.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)49,184.2153,882.6357,014.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,268.942,268.942,268.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share21.6823.7525.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share21.6823.7525.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.0924.1625.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$519.35$737.87$1,103.96
Upside / Downside385.42%589.66%931.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62,645.6066,717.5671,054.2175,672.7380,591.4685,829.9088,404.80
Payout Ratio1.49%19.19%36.89%54.60%72.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)932.2712,803.4626,213.9641,313.7358,265.7277,246.9181,774.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11,531.5811,640.8911,750.19
Year 2 PV (M)21,264.5421,669.5722,078.43
Year 3 PV (M)30,184.2031,050.6831,933.58
Year 4 PV (M)38,340.7139,815.1841,331.78
Year 5 PV (M)45,781.4947,992.7550,288.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)693,648.88727,152.38761,938.14
Equity Value (M)840,751.40879,321.45919,320.76
Shares Outstanding (M)2,268.942,268.942,268.94
Fair Value$370.55$387.55$405.18
Upside / Downside246.34%262.23%278.70%

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