Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.23 - $5.61$4.25
Multi-Stage$4.84 - $5.32$5.08
Blended Fair Value$4.66
Current Price$3.56
Upside31.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-20.55%-14.23%0.030.010.000.000.000.090.140.140.180.14
YoY Growth--208.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-37.03%0.03%-19.63%25.12%7.48%
Dividend Yield--0.81%0.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%9.16%5.35%5.60%5.58%3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)525.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)392.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)105.0265.6439.38
Cash Retained (M)392.60392.60392.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-105.02-65.64-39.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)287.58326.96353.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,101.502,101.502,101.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate0.97%1.97%2.97%
Fair Value$3.23$4.25$5.61
Upside / Downside-9.17%19.47%57.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)525.10535.44545.99556.74567.71578.89596.26
Payout Ratio25.23%38.19%51.14%64.09%77.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.50204.47279.22356.83437.40521.00551.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate0.97%1.97%2.97%
Year 1 PV (M)188.84190.71192.58
Year 2 PV (M)238.18242.92247.71
Year 3 PV (M)281.13289.56298.17
Year 4 PV (M)318.27331.07344.25
Year 5 PV (M)350.13367.82386.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,801.309,245.869,708.20
Equity Value (M)10,177.8510,667.9411,177.12
Shares Outstanding (M)2,101.502,101.502,101.50
Fair Value$4.84$5.08$5.32
Upside / Downside36.04%42.59%49.40%

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