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Definitive Analysis

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MAAS Group Holdings Limited (MGH.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.98 - $6.15$4.98
Multi-Stage$9.00 - $9.91$9.45
Blended Fair Value$7.22
Current Price$4.24
Upside70.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.070.060.060.010.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--27.10%2.85%332.59%227.21%0.00%-100.00%-1.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.74%1.37%2.12%0.36%0.07%0.00%0.07%0.07%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)91.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.9818.1210.87
Cash Retained (M)91.2891.2891.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.98-18.12-10.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.2973.1680.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)339.40339.40339.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.98$4.98$6.15
Upside / Downside-6.23%17.56%45.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144.92143.47142.04140.62139.21137.82141.95
Payout Ratio37.02%47.61%58.21%68.81%79.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.6468.3182.6896.75110.54124.04131.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)63.5464.1964.84
Year 2 PV (M)71.5473.0074.49
Year 3 PV (M)77.8780.2882.73
Year 4 PV (M)82.7586.1889.72
Year 5 PV (M)86.3790.8795.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,673.432,812.652,957.60
Equity Value (M)3,055.513,207.173,364.93
Shares Outstanding (M)339.40339.40339.40
Fair Value$9.00$9.45$9.91
Upside / Downside112.33%122.86%133.83%

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