Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lokum Deweloper S.A. (LKD.WA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.99 - $21.84$17.61
Multi-Stage$33.00 - $36.36$34.65
Blended Fair Value$26.13
Current Price$23.00
Upside13.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.20%0.00%2.701.881.650.790.232.001.301.140.780.25
YoY Growth--43.82%13.86%109.29%248.67%-88.69%53.28%14.66%46.72%210.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--12.51%7.12%10.71%4.06%1.26%16.81%7.77%6.58%5.35%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.263.291.97
Cash Retained (M)17.3217.3217.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.26-3.29-1.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.0614.0315.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.0018.0018.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.780.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.780.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.99$17.61$21.84
Upside / Downside-39.17%-23.45%-5.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.3226.0625.8025.5425.2825.0325.78
Payout Ratio34.19%45.35%56.52%67.68%78.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.0011.8214.5817.2819.9322.5323.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.0211.1311.24
Year 2 PV (M)12.6712.9313.19
Year 3 PV (M)14.0014.4314.87
Year 4 PV (M)15.0515.6716.32
Year 5 PV (M)15.8616.6817.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)525.43552.79581.28
Equity Value (M)594.02623.64654.44
Shares Outstanding (M)18.0018.0018.00
Fair Value$33.00$34.65$36.36
Upside / Downside43.48%50.64%58.08%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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