Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Open Joint Stock Company Krasnokamsk Metal Mesh Works (KZMS.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,090.98 - $5,526.86$4,114.91
Multi-Stage$5,006.04 - $5,508.31$5,252.32
Blended Fair Value$4,683.62
Current Price$226.00
Upside1,972.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS-81.79%0.00%0.0184.7366.8337.730.0333.870.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.99%26.79%77.15%123,522.22%-99.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%37.49%29.57%16.69%0.01%14.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)199.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.8724.9214.95
Cash Retained (M)199.31199.31199.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.87-24.92-14.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)159.44174.39184.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.880.880.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share180.21197.11208.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share180.21197.11208.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend180.27197.17208.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Fair Value$3,090.98$4,114.91$5,526.86
Upside / Downside1,267.69%1,720.76%2,345.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199.37202.78206.25209.78213.37217.02223.53
Payout Ratio0.03%18.02%36.02%54.01%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0636.5574.28113.30153.64195.32206.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Year 1 PV (M)33.9534.2934.62
Year 2 PV (M)64.1165.3966.68
Year 3 PV (M)90.8493.5796.36
Year 4 PV (M)114.43119.05123.80
Year 5 PV (M)135.15141.99149.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,990.664,192.764,402.96
Equity Value (M)4,429.144,647.054,873.54
Shares Outstanding (M)0.880.880.88
Fair Value$5,006.04$5,252.32$5,508.31
Upside / Downside2,115.06%2,224.04%2,337.31%

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