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Definitive Analysis

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JOST Werke AG (JST.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$158.35 - $387.82$363.44
Multi-Stage$58.00 - $63.40$60.65
Blended Fair Value$212.05
Current Price$49.65
Upside327.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.40%0.00%1.501.401.051.000.001.100.500.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7.14%33.33%5.00%0.00%-100.00%120.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.87%2.94%2.16%2.74%0.00%4.99%1.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.813.632.18
Cash Retained (M)6.716.716.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.81-3.63-2.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.893.074.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.9014.9014.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.210.30
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.210.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.561.711.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$158.35$363.44$387.82
Upside / Downside218.94%632.01%681.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.0630.9432.9635.1037.3839.8141.00
Payout Ratio76.92%79.54%82.15%84.77%87.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.3524.6127.0729.7532.6635.8337.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22.8823.1023.32
Year 2 PV (M)23.4123.8524.30
Year 3 PV (M)23.9224.6025.30
Year 4 PV (M)24.4125.3526.32
Year 5 PV (M)24.9026.1027.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)744.73780.70818.05
Equity Value (M)864.25903.72944.64
Shares Outstanding (M)14.9014.9014.90
Fair Value$58.00$60.65$63.40
Upside / Downside16.83%22.16%27.69%

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