DDM Analysis: HWDN.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.19 - $184.36	$70.62
Multi-Stage	$19.98 - $21.83	$20.89
Blended Fair Value	$45.75
Current Price	$8.56
Upside	434.48%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.42%	10.95%	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.24	0.00	0.13	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	1.58%	-0.78%	-13.92%	0.00%	-100.00%	3.37%	-0.15%	4.59%	9.18%	46.10%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.66%	2.55%	3.73%	2.70%	0.00%	1.91%	2.85%	2.70%	3.10%	2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	508.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	231.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	277.20

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	101.78	63.61	38.17
Cash Retained (M)	277.20	277.20	277.20
(-) Cash Required (M)	-101.78	-63.61	-38.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)	175.42	213.59	239.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	548.95	548.95	548.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.39	0.44
LTM Dividend per Share	0.42	0.42	0.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.39	0.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.74	0.81	0.86
WACC / Discount Rate	7.72%	7.72%	7.72%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$35.19	$70.62	$184.36
Upside / Downside	311.11%	724.95%	2,053.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	508.90	541.98	577.21	614.73	654.68	697.24	718.15
Payout Ratio	45.53%	54.42%	63.32%	72.21%	81.11%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	231.70	294.96	365.47	443.90	530.99	627.51	664.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.72%	7.72%	7.72%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	271.25	273.82	276.39
Year 2 PV (M)	309.06	314.95	320.89
Year 3 PV (M)	345.20	355.11	365.20
Year 4 PV (M)	379.71	394.32	409.34
Year 5 PV (M)	412.66	432.59	453.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,248.56	9,695.27	10,159.07
Equity Value (M)	10,966.43	11,466.04	11,984.17
Shares Outstanding (M)	548.95	548.95	548.95
Fair Value	$19.98	$20.89	$21.83
Upside / Downside	133.38%	144.01%	155.03%

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Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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